Unlike Umberto, we tend to treat our knowledge as personal property to be protected and defended. Let us call this collection of unread books an antilibrary He believes that unread books present more value than read books, so he has a lot more of them in his library serving as a constant reminder the extent of his ignorance. People ask him “what a huge library you have, how many have you read?” It turns out he hasn’t read much. The writer Umberto Eco belongs to a small insightful class of scholars with a huge library. The Black Swans are so unpredictable, we need to adjust to their existence rather than try to predict them. The central idea of the book concerns our blindness with respect to randomness, particularly large deviations. Literally, just about everything of significance around you might qualify is the same. How about the rise of Hitler and subsequent war? How about the market crash of 1987, and the more unexpected recovery? How about the rise of the internet? All follow these Black Swan dynamics. Human nature makes us concoct explanations for its occurrence after the fact, making it explainable and predictable. One single observation can invalidate a general statement derived from millennia of confirmatory sightings of millions of white swans. It illustrates a severe limitation to our learning from observations or experience, and the fragility of our knowledge. The sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise, but that is not where the significance of the story lies. In The Black Swan Nassim says “Before the discovery of Australia, the people in the old world were convinced that all swans were white, an unassailable belief as it seemed completely confirmed by evidence. Taleb closes with a bunch of practical tips to benefit from the uncertainty in the world. Taleb shows us that the unpredictable, high impact events are the most consequential parts in culture and in your life.Īlthough the world is ran by unpredictable events, it doesn’t mean we can’t benefit from them. All it takes is one single observation to invalidate a millennia of confirmation.īlack Swans are hidden from view, because of our array of biasis and irrationalities, such as the narrative fallacy, the ludic fallacy and confirmation bias. The Black Swan illustrates the severe limitations of our thinking, and the fragility of our knowledge.
0 kommentar(er)
